
Most horses in a betting race lose, so making a profit from laying horses must be easy right? Wrong!
There is no doubt that the advent of betting exchanges such as Betfair that permit punters to back an outcome to lose as well as win has transformed the sports betting industry throughout the world.
The problem with laying horses in a betting race or any other medium are the effects on your bank of losing runs. The losses caN be much greater than a policy of backing to win as you risk losing more than your stake. But there is no doubt laying horses can be profitable as this is the time honoured role of the traditional bookmaker. However this is a skill learnt and honed over long years of experience and is not something that lends itself to a novice.
Prices will tend to fluctuate according to the amount of money wagered and like most markets where people have to make choices the prices can be over/undervalued because of reputations or ignoring pertinent data.
It is helpful to convert prices to a percentage figure which helps to assess the true chance of winning an event. For example a price quoted of 10/3 should first be converted to decimal odds by adding the top to the bottom and dividing by the bottom number (10+3)/3 = 4.333. To convert this into a percentage simply divide 100 by 4.333 to obtain 23%. So if we think 10/3 is a good price it is sobering to reflect that we still have a 67% chance of losing.
The fact is that the majority of punters will lose money so to follow them is akin to the lemming that blindly follows its companions over the edge of a cliff. To avoid this and place value bets we have three options.
1. Spend time studying the event to gain a better insight into the likely chances of each participant.
2. Use the services of a good lay tipster.
3. Use a standard method which has proved itself in the past.
1. The former option is probably the best but requires a great deal of time and effort that few people are able or prepared to make.
2. A tipping exchange such as Tipping League allows us to choose a consistently profitable tipster.
3. If we choose the third option (the best value option) I recommend consideration of the following points with regards to laying horses to lose.
1. Lay the favourite
2. Ensure an adequate bank
3. Lay to risk
4. Use a system to remove the emotive element
Let me just touch on these points in order.
If we lay the favourite in a betting race we know that we aren't following the crowd - we might still fall off the cliff, but at least we won't be joining hundreds of others at the bottom. The other brilliant point to bear in mind is that, if we do lose, it will only be by the smallest amount possible in this event. The favourite enjoys the shortest odds and really the shorter the better. I'll expand on this in a moment.
If we intend to seriously mimic the role of the bookmaker, we must ensure our satchel is big enough. That means the wherewithal to withstand any battering that Lady Luck in a foul mood can throw at us. Thankfully her temper tantrums are usually shortlived but to start talking numbers here, a bank of at least £200 will be required using the minimum stake of £2 on the Betfair Exchange.
Laying to risk gives us the opportunity of increasing our stake without risk if the odds are below evens. Let us take the example of a horse whose odds are 1/2 or 1.5 decimal. If we place our £2 wager we stand to lose just half of it ie £1 - so it can be seen that we can increase our stake in this instance to £4. If the horse wins we still only lose £2 but if it loses we gain £4 - less the Betfair commission. It should be borne in mind that the prices on the exchanges are often several percent more than a normal bookmakers prices.
Anyone who has ever wagered in a betting race will be aware of how their emotions can influence their decisions. These emotions come into play either when a good win has been achieved or after a losing sequence. The elation of winning gives us a feeling of omnipotence and encourage us to take risks we would not normally consider. While the despondency of losing gives us a sense of inadequacy and self doubt, resulting in a reluctance to take what would normally have been considered a reasonable risk.
The answer is to find a method that brings together all these various elements into a simple and consistent system. One that has stood the test of time in producing regular profits is known as The Easy Lay Method
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